Tuesday, August 30, 2011

CNN and “Opinion Research Center” — The Numbers Don’t Add Up

My critique of the most recent CNN/ORC poll (released August 29).


In the “South” region, Ron Paul received 10% support among those polled. Given that it makes up such a notable portion of the total sample, this earns Ron Paul roughly 4.15% of the total vote in the sample, regardless of what respondents say in other regions. Yet, Paul receives just 6% of the total vote in the sample. Doing the quick calculation, this means that Paul must have received just 3.16% of the vote in the other 3 regions – West, Midwest, and Northeast – combined.

As far as differences between these regions are negated, that’s effectively a national poll with Paul receiving just above 3% of the vote. The last national poll in which he registered so low (without the presence of Giuliani)? An ABC News/Washington Post poll dated April 14-17, which had Paul at 2%, and a full 50% of respondents offering Other/None/Undecided.

Needless to say, this result falls well outside the expected range of Paul’s support across the rest of the country. In fact, the most recent Gallup poll (which had Paul at a 13%, admittedly on the high end of his polling range) showed that Ron Paul actually performed better in the West, Midwest, and Northeast than he did in the South...

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